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2 Feb 2015
US Jobs report preview – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team previews the US Jobs report, expecting NFP to print a lower than consensus figure at 215k, unemployment report to remain constant and average hourly earnings to rebound significantly in January.
Key Quotes
“Our model estimates non-farm payroll for January at 215,000, which is marginally below consensus at 231,000. Government job growth has averaged 9,000 per month over the past six months and our model suggests a slightly higher pace of growth in January (+15,000).”
“We expect the unemployment rate to stay constant at 5.6% , after falling 0.2 points in December.”
“Over the past three months, labour force growth has averaged 95,000 per month, while household employment has grown 278,000 per month. With employment growth likely to decline in January, the downward drift in the unemployment rate could take a breather before continuing lower.”
“The largest surprise in the December release was a fall in average hourly earnings. Hourly earnings in the private sector fell 0.2% m/m, taking the annual wage inflation proxy to 0.5% in Q4, down from 1.5% in Q3.”
“However, the more correct measure, the Employment Cost Index released with the Q4 GDP data on Friday showed a much more muted slowdown in wage inflation. Hence, we expect a significant rebound in average hourly earnings in January.”
Key Quotes
“Our model estimates non-farm payroll for January at 215,000, which is marginally below consensus at 231,000. Government job growth has averaged 9,000 per month over the past six months and our model suggests a slightly higher pace of growth in January (+15,000).”
“We expect the unemployment rate to stay constant at 5.6% , after falling 0.2 points in December.”
“Over the past three months, labour force growth has averaged 95,000 per month, while household employment has grown 278,000 per month. With employment growth likely to decline in January, the downward drift in the unemployment rate could take a breather before continuing lower.”
“The largest surprise in the December release was a fall in average hourly earnings. Hourly earnings in the private sector fell 0.2% m/m, taking the annual wage inflation proxy to 0.5% in Q4, down from 1.5% in Q3.”
“However, the more correct measure, the Employment Cost Index released with the Q4 GDP data on Friday showed a much more muted slowdown in wage inflation. Hence, we expect a significant rebound in average hourly earnings in January.”