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6 May 2015
Probability of a second election in UK – Investec
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Head of FX dealing at Investec, comments on the key developments in the UK election scenario, noting that Nick Clegg’s warning of a potential second election if Labour and Conservatives try to form a minority would be negative for the pound.
Key Quotes
“On the penultimate day of campaigning before the general election, we expect to see more of the last ditch search of votes witnessed yesterday. We’ve yet to see any one leader make significant gains in the polls, as the latest releases continue to show Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck.”
“From a currency perspective the key development yesterday was Nick Clegg’s warning of second election, should Labour or the Conservatives try to form a minority Government. Should this transpire, we anticipate the uncertainty caused would have a fairly negative effect on the pound.”
“Finally on the election front, the latest poll from YouGov on a UK referendum on Europe has shown 45% would vote for the UK to remain in the EU, while 33% would vote for the UK to leave. This is another political event that would create uncertainty in the UK and as a result would most likely lead to sterling weakness, and certainly lead to volatility in exchange rates.”
Key Quotes
“On the penultimate day of campaigning before the general election, we expect to see more of the last ditch search of votes witnessed yesterday. We’ve yet to see any one leader make significant gains in the polls, as the latest releases continue to show Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck.”
“From a currency perspective the key development yesterday was Nick Clegg’s warning of second election, should Labour or the Conservatives try to form a minority Government. Should this transpire, we anticipate the uncertainty caused would have a fairly negative effect on the pound.”
“Finally on the election front, the latest poll from YouGov on a UK referendum on Europe has shown 45% would vote for the UK to remain in the EU, while 33% would vote for the UK to leave. This is another political event that would create uncertainty in the UK and as a result would most likely lead to sterling weakness, and certainly lead to volatility in exchange rates.”