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21 Jan 2016
ECB Preview: Draghi to express a patient view – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Danske Bank, expects Mario Draghi to express a patient view at the ECB meeting today, as he needs to balance the views of the doves as well as the hawks.
Key Quotes
“The very low oil price and in particular falling inflation expectations are threats to our expectation that the ECB has delivered the end of easing. However, given that the market already prices in a relatively high probability of additional rate cuts, today's meeting could be a disappointment if Draghi does not point to further rate cuts.
Before the ECB policy announcement, the final euro-zone inflation numbers for December will also be released. We expect the December figure to be unchanged at 0.2% y/y but note that we still expect inflation to increase to 0.5% y/y in January.
The weekly US oil inventory data will be in focus for the oil market oil as over-supply remains a strong negative factor for the oil price.”
Key Quotes
“The very low oil price and in particular falling inflation expectations are threats to our expectation that the ECB has delivered the end of easing. However, given that the market already prices in a relatively high probability of additional rate cuts, today's meeting could be a disappointment if Draghi does not point to further rate cuts.
Before the ECB policy announcement, the final euro-zone inflation numbers for December will also be released. We expect the December figure to be unchanged at 0.2% y/y but note that we still expect inflation to increase to 0.5% y/y in January.
The weekly US oil inventory data will be in focus for the oil market oil as over-supply remains a strong negative factor for the oil price.”