25bp rate hike in Dec FOMC meeting - UOB

Analysts at UOB Group are still expecting one 25-bps hike in 13/14 December FOMC although we rule out a preemptive move in November.

Key Quotes:

"Based on trading in futures and options data compiled by Bloomberg, the probability of another Fed rate hike in November is now lower at 19.3% on 7 Oct (from 23.6% before the US jobs release). Interestingly, the probability of a hike by December FOMC is higher post-Sep jobs report at 65.1% on 7 Oct (from 63.6%), closing towards the perceived threshold of 75% (for the Fed to be moving on hikes). The next FOMC meeting is on 1/2 November but it is without an updated Summary of Economic Projections or a press conference by the FOMC Chair, Janet Yellen. The key data ahead of the November FOMC will be the 3Q 2016 US GDP (28 Oct), September CPI (18 Oct) and September PCE (31 Oct)."