India: Expect a GDP reading in the low 6% area - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that India’s Q3 GDP is due for release today and great uncertainty surrounds these numbers as the introduction of a GST system in July has deeply affected trade in the country which contributes to approx. 20% of GDP formation.

Key Quotes

“The GST is also believed to have widely distorted data the CSO uses to compile the GDP series, which makes estimating these numbers more complicated than usual. Moreover, it is uncertain what impact gold trade will have in Q3, after exhibiting an anomalous spike in Q2 that contributed to GDP formation with an unusually large 2.4%. For these reasons, the consensus reading of 6.4% Y/Y (prior: 5.7%) falls within a wide 5.9-7.1% range. We tend to side with the least optimistic views and expect a reading in the low 6% area.”