Canada: Focus on CPI this week – NBF

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, for the Canadian markets, a lot of attention will be on March’s consumer price index.

Key Quotes

“The surge in gasoline prices during the month may have led the headline price index to rise 0.7% m/m (not seasonally adjusted). This would allow the annual inflation rate to rise 4 ticks to 1.9%. The annual rate of CPI-common, meanwhile, may have stayed put at 1.8%.”

“In other news, healthy auto sales in February likely translated into the first expansion of headline retail sales in four months. Ex-auto sales, for their part, may come in a tad weaker, reflecting stagnating pump prices which may have limited outlays at gasoline stations.”

“We’ll also get data on February’s merchandise trade balance. Rising commodity prices during the month should have allowed nominal exports to register their first back-to-back expansion in seven months, a development that could lead to a reduction of the trade deficit to around C$3.25 billion.”

“Still in February, manufacturing sales could have increased for the second month in a row, buoyed by rising prices in the petroleum/coal products category. We’ll also keep an eye on the release of the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey for Q1.”