RBA is expected to raise interest rates in early 2023, and possibly sooner – Reuters Poll

Reuters came out with its optimistic survey results for the market expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next move.

“Against a backdrop of rising inflation in Australia and around the world, the RBA is now predicted to lift its cash rate from a record low 0.10% in the first quarter of 2023,” per November 29-December 2 poll of 35 respondents were published during Friday’s Asian session.

“That's sooner than the second quarter of 2023 forecast in a poll taken almost a month ago, while in a survey taken only two months ago there was no consensus for any rate rise in 2023,” adds Reuters.

Key quotes

A small majority, 16 of 25 economists, expected at least one rate hike by the end of the first quarter of 2023, compared with 11 of 25 economists in the previous poll.

Economists in the Nov. 29-Dec. 2 poll expect a second rate hike in the second quarter of 2023 of 25 basis points to 0.50%. The cash rate is then projected to rise to 0.75% in the final quarter of 2023.

All 34 economists expected the cash rate to stay at 0.10% at the Dec. 7 meeting.

Market reaction

Despite the upbeat Reuters poll on RBA rate hike calls, the AUD/USD refreshes intraday low to 0.7085 as markets brace for the Fed rate hike and awaits Friday’s US jobs report.

Read: AUD/USD bears look to 0.7000 on firmer yields ahead of US NFP